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Evaluating the 2020 NFL Draft Trades

There are two types of GMs.

The GM who looks to move back in the draft sacrificing a first-round pick in exchange for excess later-round capital. We call him (or her) the "Let-The-Talent-Come-To-Me" GM.

And the GM who looks to move up in the draft offering a handful of late-round draft selections for a prized first-round pick. We call him the "Get-My-Guy-At-All-Costs" GM.

Bill Belichick falls into the former. Mike Maccagnan falls into the latter. You tell me which strategy is more effective.

Today we evaluate the draft pick trades that went down in the first three rounds of the 2020 draft using the heralded Jimmy Johnson Draft Pick Value Chart.

Here they are:

Day 1 trades

Buccaneers trade up for No. 13 pick

Buccaneers receive: 1151 points » 2020 first-round pick (No. 13; select Iowa OT Tristan Wirfs) » 2020 seventh-round pick (No. 245)

49ers receive: 1160 points

» 2020 first-round pick (No. 14; select South Carolina DT Javon Kinlaw)

» 2020 fourth-round pick (No. 117)

Winner of the Trade: 49ers

By a score of 1160 to 1151, the 49ers were the winners of this trade which is to be expected when they were the team that moved backward in the first round, giving the Bucs the opportunity to select their guy Tristan Wirfs. Supply and Demand.

Chargers trade up for No. 23 pick

Chargers receive: 760 points

» 2020 first-round pick (No. 23; select Oklahoma LB Kenneth Murray)

Patriots receive: 765 points

» 2020 second-round pick (No. 37; select Lenoir-Rhyne safety Kyle Dugger) » 2020 third-round pick (No. 71)

Winner of the Trade: Patriots

Surprise. New England wins a draft trade by trading out of the first round, swapping 23 for 37 and 71. Spoiler alert, Pats wind up moving the 71st pick. Keep reading.

49ers trade up for No. 25 pick

49ers receive: 720 points » 2020 first-round pick (No. 25; select Arizona State WR Brandon Aiyuk)

Vikings receive: 682 points » 2020 first-round pick (No. 31; select TCU CB Jeff Gladney) » 2020 fourth-round pick (No. 117) » 2020 fifth-round pick (No. 176)

Winner of the Trade: 49ers

John Lynch wins both of his first-round trades. The net result is that he gave up pick 13, 31,176, and 245 (1773 points) to returned picks 14 and 25 (1820 points). The 117th pick cancels itself out since he moved it minutes after receiving it. John Lynch continues to succeed after being named the 2019 NFL Executive of the Year.

Packers trade up for No. 26 pick

Packers receive: 700 points » 2020 first-round pick (No. 26; select Utah State QB Jordan Love)

Dolphins receive: 658 points » 2020 first-round pick (No. 30; select Auburn CB Noah Igbinoghene) » 2020 fourth-round pick (No. 136)

Winner of the Trade: Packers

Green Bay GM Brian Gutekunst surprises many with a trade to move up in the first round to grab a quarterback while Aaron Rodgers is under contract for 4 more years with guaranteed money. They say if you wait until you need a quarterback to draft one, it's too late. Goot's mentor Ted Thompson pulled off a similar move drafting Aaron Rodgers 25th overall in 2005 when Favre was almost the same age as Rodgers is now. Time will tell if BG's evaluation of Jordan Love is as accurate as TT's was of A-Rodg. Either way, the Packers win the trade by 42 points.

Day 2 trades

Colts trade up for No. 41 pick

Colts receive: 490 points » 2020 first-round pick (No. 41; select Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor)

Browns receive: 488 points » 2020 second-round pick (No. 44; select LSU safety Grant Delpit) » 2020 fifth-round pick (No. 160)

Winner of the Trade: Colts

Basically a tie. If we ignore the chart, I would give the nod to the Browns because they got a first-round talent in Delpit at 44 and added the 160th because they felt like it. Sonny Weaver shit.

Seahawks trade up for No. 48 pick

Seahawks receive: 420 points » 2020 second-round pick (No. 48; select Tennessee DE Darrell Taylor)

Jets receive: 406 points » 2020 second-round pick (No. 59; select Baylor WR Denzel Mims) » 2020 third-round pick (No. 101)

Winner of the Trade: Seahawks

Seahawks win on paper but once again, if we ignore the chart I would say the Jets won because Denzel Mims, who they probably wanted at 48, wound up being available at 59 and they added the 101st pick to boot.

Patriots trade up for No. 60 pick

Patriots receive: 343 points » 2020 second-round pick (No. 60; select Michigan LB Josh Uche) » 2020 fourth-round pick (No. 129)

Ravens receive: 343 points » 2020 third-round pick (No. 71; Texas A&M DT Justin Madubuike) » 2020 third-round pick (No. 98)

Winner of the Trade: Tie!

The only front office that the Patriots can't swindle is the Ravens, who in an upcoming blog (foreshadowing) we might, maybe, possibly crown as the victors of the 2020 draft and winners of 5 SB rings in the next decade. It's a waiting game right now. We won't know.

Panthers trade up for No. 64 pick

Panthers receive: 270 points

» 2020 second-round pick (No. 64; select Southern Illinois S Jeremy Chinn)

Seahawks receive: 277 points

» 2020 third-round pick (No. 69; select LSU G Damien Lewis) » 2020 fifth-round pick (No. 148)

Winner of the Trade: Seahawks

Panthers sacrifice 7 value points to lock up their guy at safety, Jeremy Chinn.

Saints trade up for No. 74 pick

Saints receive: 221 points

» 2020 third-round pick (No. 74; select Wisconsin LB Zack Baun)

» 2020 seventh-round pick (No. 244)

Browns receive: 340 points

» 2020 third-round pick (No. 88; select Mississippi State DT Jordan Elliott)

» 2021 third-round pick

Winner of the Trade: Browns

The most lopsided trade so far is a little unfairly judged because the 2021 third-round pick does not have the immediate value of a 2020 pick. However, consulting the oracle, the Browns trade graped the Saints by 119 points. Who Dat say the Saints are a better franchise than the Browns? Me. That's who. But not in this example.

Lions trade up for No. 75 pick

Lions receive: 229 points

» 2020 third-round pick (No. 75; select Ohio State G Jonah Jackson)

» 2020 sixth-round pick (No. 197)

Colts receive: 217 points

» 2020 third-round pick (No. 85; select Utah safety Julian Blackmon)

» 2020 fifth-round pick (No. 149)

» 2020 sixth-round pick (No. 182)

Winner of the Trade: Lions

Detroit wins by a somewhat significant margin relative to the other trades we have evaluated. Indianapolis and Detroit, Detroit and Indianapolis. Does anyone really care?

Patriots trade up for No. 91 pick

Patriots receive: 165 points » 2020 third-round pick (No. 91; select UCLA TE Devin Asiasi) » 2020 fifth-round pick (No. 159)

Raiders receive: 160 points » 2020 third-round pick (No. 100) » 2020 fourth-round pick (No. 139) » 2020 fifth-round pick (No. 172)

Winner of the Trade: Patriots

The Raiders are not the Ravens. They fall victim to Belichick's wizardry and Devin Asiasi has to be the next Michael Hoomanawanui based on his name alone.

Patriots trade up for No. 101 pick

Patriots receive: 96 points » 2020 third-round pick (No. 101; select Virginia Tech TE Dalton Keene)

Jets receive: 99 points » 2020 fourth-round pick (No. 125) » 2020 fourth-round pick (No. 129) » 2021 sixth-round pick

Winner of the Trade: Jets

Bill "I resign as HC of NYJ" Belichick bends the knee to Joe Douglas. Many, like myself, thought when this trade went down that the Jets just handed Belichick his next Tom Brady. But Bill went with TE/H-Back Dalton Keene who based on his tape is the perfect player for NE's offensive scheme. Keene will line up at fullback, halfback, tight end, wide receiver, left tackle, quarterback, offensive coordinator, and getcha-popcorn-here guy for New England.

PS - for the 2021 picks traded, I used the median value of whatever round the pick was from to assign a score.

Day 1 & 2 Trade Winners/Losers

1) Browns (+117 points)

2) 49ers (+47 points)

3) Packers (+42 points)

4) Seahawks (+21 points)

5) Patriots (+7 points)

6) Ravens (even)

7) Chargers (-5 points)

8) Panthers (-7 points)

9) Bucanneers (-9 points)

10) Colts (-10 points)

11) Jets (-11 points)

12) Vikings (-38 points)

13) Dolphins (-42 points)

14) Saints (-119 points)


My synopsis after evaluating these trades...

1) The Patriots continue to be the Patriots, leading me to believe that Belichick will continue to succeed in the post-Brady era.

2) Joe Douglas is a good GM, despite the chart evaluation.

3) More than any other GM in the league, Brian Gutekunst does not give a FUCK what the fans think or want. Ironic because the Packers are the only franchise owned by the fans.

4) The Ravens are the next dynasty. They have the front office, they have the coach, and now they have the three-headed backfield of Jackson/Ingram/Dobbins which is unfair.

5) I wish the draft was every day.

Day 3 draft trade evaluation forthcoming. A lot of talented players still on the board for rounds 4-7. Get some rest, Roger Goodell. You earned your $40 million salary last night.

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